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2022.03.16

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International capital and mainstream economics are optimistic about the prospects of the Indian market,Most are based on inertial trust in a large population base and a solid political system。However, along with opportunities are risks:As strongman Prime Minister Narendra Modi's reforms for global markets enter fifth year,Unprecedented changes and challenges are breeding within Indian society。can they be disposed of properly,will be right21Asia and the world have an immeasurable impact。

Arts|Liu Yi

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2018year2moon24day,Two young men in Udaipur, Rajasthan at Karni·Conversation at the wall of the Temple of Mata

middle class in slums

The train swayed through“island city”(Common name for the southern peninsula region of Mumbai)the heart of,Slowly heading south。Southwest monsoon blowing from the Arabian Sea(Monsoon)There is still more than half a month to arrive in the South Asian subcontinent,The city of Mumbai will reach the highest temperature in the afternoon each day38Celsius。like many local passenger trains,West Indian Railways(WR)The Harbour Line local trains operate without air conditioning and windowpanes,The fan blades hanging down on the ceiling do not move,The door of the carriage is always open。The scorching sun quickly warms the touch of the metal seats and handles,I started trying to be like a local“hang”on the grab bar behind the door,so as to get in touch with the cool breeze brought by the train going forward。

We are driving into one of the largest slums in the world:Dharavi(Dharavi)。the afternoon before,I've seen what it looks like up close。Brick walls stained and blackened by the sun and rain crowded together like rush hour subway passengers,Top covered with crude asbestos tile or tarpaulin。Teenager going out with empty bucket、Clothes hanging out to dry under the eaves and on both sides of the road are just as ubiquitous as uncleaned street feces.。From those relatively tall residential buildings in the community center(Most of the spacing is insufficient2Meter)when passing through,You may be startled by the roar of the giant machine——Textile and garment processing plants with hundreds of employees,Located on the semi-basement level of a large residential building,The sweat on the darkened cheeks of the workers can be clearly seen through the transom。Of course,There will never be a shortage of calves that are hyperactive anywhere in India;They are usually chained at random around the corner of a building or at the entrance and exit of a small alley.,Boredom driving away the flies with his tail:The cow is as bony as its owner。

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2012year3moon14day,A shopping guide at the flagship store of Hermès boutique in Delhi is laying out samples

Dharavi from the railway that runs through the city,To a certain extent, these real sensual displeasures are isolated。The outer wall of the station shields the dark green sewage that flows like a waterfall from the heights where the slum is located(They can still be seen from the other side of the road);in the afternoon sun,Few residents roam outdoors,thus giving the observer the illusion of being sparsely populated。But the statistics are real and cruel:till2016end of the year,in Dharavi2.1square kilometer(Only half of the area of Beijing Botanical Garden)permanent residence60Ten thousand~100million population,average1450people share a toilet,Community doctors and volunteers deal with nearly4000typhoid fever patients。Government of India in2010Dharavi was planned to be completely demolished and rebuilt,But shelved because of too much difficulty:Even the simplest rebuilding in situ,The estimated cost also exceeds20One hundred million U.S. dollars。And a slum of this size,In Mumbai city and metropolitan area there are also4where,The number of inhabitants is close to the total local population1/4。

South Dharavi from a 4 star hotel in the heart of the new city,We are visiting52Batra。The University of CalcuttaMBAThere is a machinery and equipment import and export company under its name、A motorcycle parts factory and an industrial paint trader,And most of his orderers and downstream companies are located around Dharavi。“There are many of my social connections in the ghetto、Business Partner Network and Hazardous Chemicals Warehouse,We Indians are not ashamed。”Batra introduced me in his air-conditioned office,“Before my father became a scientist at the National Physical Laboratory,He also lives in Dharavi。”According to this annual sales of more than50The million dollar millionaire's view,Dharavi is an uncompromising feng shui gem——Here are factories and offices with the lowest rent in Mumbai,Import and export of goods can be easily10Inbound and outbound port area。Young people who come from other provinces to seek refuge with relatives and friends often find their first cheap shelter in Dharavi,and successfully found the first subsistence job。“The government hopes to put an end to the drawbacks caused by excessive population density,Ask us to move the warehouse and factory to the north as soon as possible60Vasai East(Vasai East)industrial area。I'm not that stupid!that‘industrial area’Power outages at least every day3Hour,who will bear the loss?”

Batra asked confidently,It's hard to say it's narrow-minded。Strictly speaking,Not only should Dharavi not be called a low-income community,It can even be said to be an incubator for the middle class in Mumbai。since1947Since the date of partition of India and Pakistan,Low rents and an influx of young and middle-aged labor from rural areas across the country have attracted a large number of textile factories、Garment Factory、Leather and jewelry processing factories and pottery workshops are located in the local area,5000SMEs and15000The annual turnover of each production workshop is21The beginning of the century has risen to10more than 0 million。Dharavi centres waste recycling industry across India's southwest coast,create25million jobs。Ads for credit networks and legal counsel firms that provide funds and services to small and micro businesses are also everywhere.。Economists from various institutions have calculated that the per capita annual income of Dharavi residents is800dollar to2000between dollars,This figure is in line with the World Bank estimate2017Annual per capita income in India(close1500Dollar)near,significantly higher than Bihar、Rajasthan and other northern agricultural states。Except for poor public health conditions and living service facilities,Dharavi residents have high literacy rate69%,have the highest average literacy of any urban slum in the world,This also explains why the local vicious security case rate is not significantly higher than other parts of India——Although according to the level of urban governance in the world's middle-income countries,dirty hot、Air and water pollution is extremely serious、Dharavi with welding sparks flying everywhere is a hell on earth。

“Americans have twisted our minds‘middle class’understanding of the concept。”Britain, which has long been concerned about India's problems《Economist》magazine social policy editor Emma·Duncan(Emma Duncan)tell me in the mail,“‘Middle’It must be equal to a small western-style building with a garden、Private car、English afternoon tea set and several weeks of paid holidays a year??Obviously not。but when we mention‘future india3million middle class’Time,It is precisely this overrated standard that is used。”Fortunately Mr. Batra provided me with a more realistic sample,A living example of a Dharavi family's rise in class amid changing times——“like many Indian SME founders,30years ago,I started a small business with loans from my father and uncle。”Bartra recalled,“Chances of getting a loan from a big state-owned bank are always slim,But I still thank Prime Minister Rao for his liberalization reforms,Allows me to undertake direct work from Europe、Orders from China and Indonesia。now i am8countries with regular customers,Live in a single-family house in the new city,Many partners of my age have also improved financially。And it's all thanks to Dharavi:without the cheap labor it provides、cheap rent and social relations,I'm afraid I'm1998The low cereal period after the year has been produced.。”

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2014year8moon11day,An worker in the Mumbai Dalawei pummer is not afraid at a simple metal processing workshop

Dallavi in Bartrakou“social relationship”,Refolding is the new value given in the traditional humanity in market economy。When millions of young farmers poured into Delhi and Mumbai from the northern part of the country,The 桎梏 桎梏 桎梏 桎梏 桎梏 微 微 微 微 微 微 微,Family relationship、The cooperation relationship with the homesickness and related industry-based industries has always existed。Through this rich localization、Relationship between civilianization characteristics,Father and brothers provide startup funds for entrepreneurs,Intermediary companies form a state-based recruitment network,Finance company with relatively fair rate、Help small companies over difficulties。1998Indian government violates《Nuclear non-proliferation》、Self-announcement has become a nuclear country,The foreign trade order from Europe and the United States reduces dramatically;Near5Year-time,It is the simple risk sharing awareness in the underlying social relationship to let Dallavi's many small and medium business owners can bite the teeth.,By debt extension、Delaying remuneration and other means will continue to maintain the company。“Dallavi has its own morality and business logic,”Batla,“No government,We can still survive according to your own way.。This is the real cornerstone of Indian society.。”

There are no millionaires in the slums——At least too much——But it has achieved the connection of traditional society and the free market in a way of magical colors.。Watzilpur in Durgre District(Wazirpur)、Mayan(Mayapuri)And Northern University in the suburbs·Palbart(Anand Prabat)industrial area,I have seen tens of thousands of slum workers working every day in a simple textile factory and metal processing workshop.8~10Hours,Go to the second、The third generation of small family plants are planning to expand capacity,and20Many years ago, the prosperity of China's southeast coastal township enterprises。Although there is a major difference in the type of the market,But in essence is still the same logic:The civil society spontaneously formed human resources、Optimized configuration of funds and land resources,And in the large-flow cycle of global commodities, it is found to be your own.。It makes the wealth flow and class of Indian society have not been interrupted by the government.,Since there is a rough but tough、Time to touch people's strength。

The only question is,Does the Indian government really appreciate this and sewage?、Dangerous houses and dirty visual air accompanied by civil econom。Battra tone is concerned:“When the Mumbai City Government found Darlawi's residents in order to save life expenses、Long-term stealing municipal power,They don't plan to solve problems,Instead, the business contracting of civil hydropower in this area is directly contracted by private companies.。”now,The behavior of private wires and water pipes has become extremely dangerous,Because security people responsible for facility maintenance can be placed at any time。From more than ten years ago,It's a flat shadow that is thoroughly smashed overnight.——The blue roof of the slums of the slum has become a compulsory course of all foreign photographers on a privately-caught passenger plane.,This is obviously damaged in India.“International image”。If the national party government is bad administrative efficiency, Dallavi's residents can be relieved.,So2014In the year, Moti Cabinet's acting style,Be letting“possibility”Step by step“Necessity”。

(website developer in noida)“We don't belong to the India you want.。One day,He will abandon us。”Batla has been prepared for this kind of psychological preparation。

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2017year8moon15day,Indian Prime Minister Moti attended the Independence Day Celebration in Deli Red Fort

Malthus and Marx

Squificent courtesy、Badla in vocabaries in more than a dozen countries is not the only sample in India's middle class.。Day late,I am in35Celsius is high-renowned by the famous landmark in Delhi Old Town(Connaught Place)Time,Just rubbing a group of odd young people。Different from the sluggish in the face of Middle-aged farmers in India、Numbness,The young people in Delhi will use a kind of thrive to provoke everything.,And propose a eternal boring issue to Chinese tourists:“Do you have many high-rise buildings in your country??”Street push is all Wadofeng Telecom(Vodafone)billboard、McDonald's restaurant light box and online paymentAPPPlacards are displayed,They are never known as ignorance,It is the darling of global information explosion and modern consumerism。But this did not give them a broad field of vision,Instead, it becomes more and more and more。

The middle class and the Dallavi pole in the Canto Square belong to two types of people.:The former is from their birthday.“City people”,The latter needs to experience the hard work of two to three generations.,In order to truly take the root of this strange super city。The problem is,As the time goes,The first type of person is getting not happy.“Foreigner”Share the same boom with yourself。ITNews siteTechCrunchChief operator、forward《era》Weekly Warm Passing Correspondent Nad·Daysmond(Ned Desmond)already2000The image of this group is depicted:“The middle class in the British Times is the legal and knowledge elite in the influence of westernization education.,Today's Indian city is an extreme greed、Anxious class;They know all the benefits of materialism,But I don't want to be bound by any morality and values.,Therefore, it is unbridled。”Villa area living in isolation、The impersonas who have the camera and bodyguards will hide the inner arrogance under the etiquette.,and“City people”Medium lower,Since the self-sensing opportunities are being taken away by the rapid increase,It has naked nakedly to express their dissatisfaction in his words and deeds.。

Bloomberg Station Indian Correspondent Yan·Mallow(Iain Marlow)Tell me about an intriguing story。This spring,Mumbai's Tamil Nadu in Mumbai and Tamil Nadu in Mumbai have been connected to large-scale group conflicts.,Caused a number of people,The cause is that some people pass encrypted communication softwareWhatsAppspread“Muslim and foreigners are kidnapped locally”Fake news。“When a similar rumor occurs in a US social network,At most, one pass-to-mouth attack,But in India will cause real riots。”Mallo analysis,“The average literacy rate here is only65%,Many people still don't know how to use smartphones.。They don't have the ability to appreciate the news,But there is too powerful execution and enthusiasm of enthusiasm。”Due to the presence of safety stress caused by Pakistan, Pakistan,And the actual Hindu nationalism background,The contradiction between groups is most likely to be in the form of religious conflicts as a final presented form.——Belief Hinduism in the middle class molecules with Internet video、Fake news and broadcast as mobilization tools,Mobilization city unemployed and active molecular attacks in villages“steal”Muslim population of their wealth。Although it looks on the scale,1.72Yindu Muslim accounts for the total population of the country14.2%(2011Annual data),Never a small number。

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2018year4moon19day,A crowded bus on Jaipur

Air pollution in Dallawi、Infectious diseases and the open-air drought in Mayati,Ethnic conflicts and urban rutys are always accompanied by the overall process of market-oriented transitions in India。1994year10moon,Northern state、Bihar and“Indian Silicon Valley”Bangalore also broke out large-scale group conflicts,More than hundreds of dead injuries。Although the official is not exceptionally claimed“Pakistan agent”Planned,But in the conflict, the most exciting is the local middle class of religion in India.。This is a new civil war in different ethnic groups to compete for wealth distribution rights and job opportunities.,Although it is put on a long-awaited religious contradiction coat。1992End of the year,Advocate“Local interests”Radiant Indian Political Party Wet Ma God(Shiv Sena)Planning a large-scale attack on the Muslim community in Mumbai,Exceeding900People are killed。The party is still close to the Legislative Council of Maharashtra1/4Seat。Three months later,Mumbai Muslim gangs detonated in public places in the city12Vehicle bomb,Nearly 3 casualties。2006~2011year,Armed group with international terrorism“Sincere army”(Lashkar-e-Taiba)and“Indian Jihad”(Indian Mujahideen)In Mumbai、Delhi has created a number of serial trains explosion and hotel attacks on civilians.,The dead and injuries have reached hundreds of people。This also enables Mumbai public places to keep strict security procedures,Be full of tension。

Exclude the international background contained in the attack,recent25The most quirky feature of large-scale group conflicts and group violence occurred in India,They do not appear during the economic recession,But always and itGDPGrowth rate and advancement of urbanization processes。Therefore, the riots will happen in Mumbai、Delhi's population and social resources are the most intense big city,Instead of northern and central poverty villages。This is a chart war of uncomfortable class.:Religious doctrine does not explain it,Malthus and Marx can。That is like Professor Attorney, Princheston·Kochley(Atul Kohli)In their monograph《Democracy and championship:Governance crisis in Indian growth》Like that:A government with good governance will tend to provide development space that can be adapted to different ethnic groups.,But the New Deli authorities can't do this.。The country does not meet the expectations of society,Therefore, the society is allowed to have a private establishment of legitimacy and put it into practice.,The cost is a long-lasting conflict and crime。

Reversing the Soviet Mode of India1947Control the central government for more than half a century;Until the last century90Soon,Localized planned economic system can still determine the industrial structure and urban and rural population distribution in India.。after that,Common liberalization,Stable rural population base, the case system, gradually, gradually, class layouts in income differentiation,The high-speed growth of the country's population has taken more than that of the Indian government that is not high.20The year is the most basic control。George Mason University Senior Socius Jack·Goldstone(Jack Goldstone)Explain this:“Population in high-speed growth requires more public facilities,But there is a lack of government governments that can only provide limited income growth opportunities.。Thus,Standard pressure、debt、The situation in inflation and corruption is bound to increase。These trends will worsen the effectiveness and legality of national governance,Eventually to lose its ability to maintain social order。”It can be described as。

Malthus200Population growth traps proposed many years ago,So far, like a ghost, in India。Although the innovation of agricultural production technology has completely solved the problem of local people's rations,But their needs have long been here.。Those smartphones、RideUberThe network of the network of the network can see the lifestyle owned by our American peers every second.,And hope;More young people who have just poured into Daravi are fighting for their first suburban housing。If they find the total amount of wealth will never meet their expectations of ideals and middle life,What is the result??Of course it is a Marxical——Most intense、The most thorough class war。

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Panorama of Mumbai Dalawei shot when the passenger plane landed

(website developer in noida)Environmental political founder、Thomas, professor of Waterloo University, Canada·Homer-Dickson(Thomas Homer-Dixon)Invented a concept,Used to describe the long-term crisis that India society will face:“Governance capability deficit”。exist1993Annual published monograph《Population and conflict》middle,He explained this:Although Indian culture has a strong self-adaptability,But professional knowledge is lacking、Social inherent ethnic cracks and long-term execution of the government will result in“Establish a shortage of effective governance”。And unprotected population growth,The consequences caused by this shortage will be exposed earlier than expected.,At the time“The whole society will split by internal,Even if there is one or two Haojie characters, the innocence is also unable to avoid”。

Sincerely,What we are talking about is the past20One of the most rapid development of the world's global development,Instead of Sahara's disappearance。From the extensiveness of political accommodation strength and recognition,India should be more advantageous than Pakistan, which。But this does not mean that the pressure of population has increased to government governance capacity is better than African countries.。Yes,Delhi and Mumbai airport order,Customs, never appear in the vicinity of the Customs Border Inspection Channel.、broker。But considering this is the size of two population reached2000Ten level super city,Beijing、Shanghai compared to the obvious sparse passenger flow, it is unmistonless:it's here,Taking a plane is still a class of financial thresholds。According to the World Bank2016Statistics released at the beginning of the year,13Yifeng58%The average daily life expenditure is lower than3.1Dollar;Among them1.8The average daily life expenditure of billions of people is located1.9Dollar(By purchasing power parity)Absolute poverty line,20% of the world's poorest population。As a comparison,China's corresponding absolute poor population is1.38Billion。The conclusions of the investigation team leading the Chairman of the Indian Government Economic Advisory Commission Chairman Langaraha En:As of Moti to Tower2014year,All India still has3.63100 million poverty in the local standard,Equivalent to the total population30%。This ratio is even higher than the Pakistan that has been regarded as a brightened textbook.。

Be21Part of the emerging market myths in the early course of the world,International capital is optimistic about India on such pre-judgment:In view of the current Indian total population28.6%Yes14Children and infants under the age of age,and65More than one person5.3%,future10A new year of Asia's new labor50%The above will appear here。Expected to2040Year-old,The number of Indian school-age works will be currently8.85100 million further increase10.8100 million,And will accept more complete education than the previous generation、More easily seamlessly integrated into the global circulation。At the time,India will become the latest wave of beneficiaries in Asian population——Similar situation in the last century90China has happened once in China。

But such an optimistic estimate is based on two important assumptions.,That is:The low added value of the labor intensive industry produced in the global market still has a strong demand;The Indian government can effectively meet the new population on infrastructure(Especially housing and transportation)、Requirements for social welfare and political participation。The previous item is currently being widely questioned.:As Europe and the United States developed countries successively entered the age of population,“Indian manufacturing”The sales will become a big problem;And Indian domestic countries are numerous poor people, especially in rural poor people.,It means that the reliability of domestic demand is still subject to。And support private economy、Reduce poor population and establish more and improved social security,Even with the reform of Moto Prime Minister, I have not found too effective ways.。Low-end economies like Dalawi are still like30or50Year ago,Maintain operation according to spontaneous logic;Once they are too radical,It is impossible to have a shock。since2011Year,We have witnessed countless brightening examples in the Middle East and Northwest:When a large number of young people cannot effectively transform into actual labor,What will consequences?。

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A household station in the Bopal slum is in front of the Water-style public toilet constructed in the Modi government

Gujarat myth

Review on all the history of Indian new ethnic conflicts,Almost all Western observers will mention a far-reaching case:2002The riots occurred in the northwest Heavy Town Gujarat。Like Mumbai bombings,Although this riot is rendered by religious conflict,But its direct incentives are economical。2001year1moon,The most intense Kishi County, Gujarat(Residents3/4Hindu)Reel7.7Magnitude earthquake,Nearly210,000 people are killed and near17Ten thousand people injured。Pujie City, Kami County40%The house is smashed,The county is 60% of the residents who are homeless,Forced to influence the level of affected Ahmedabad(Ahmedabad)Refuge。The lag of government resettlement has made millions of disasters for a long time to stay in dirty crowds.、Infrastructure serious aging province,And because of the incitement of religious extreme molecules,Eventually lead the anger to the Muslim population in the local part。exist2002The spring is over a month of a month,The entire Gujarat1400~2000Civilians lost,Exceed2500People injured。There are more than the deceased.3/4Muslim,The rest is Hindu。

It means that it means that,At that time, he served as the chief minister of Gujarat.(Equivalent to governor)Politician,Entirely12After the year, I won the chairman of the National Elections of the National Original President Nalendra.·Moti(Narendra Modi)。U.K《Financial Times》Senior columnist Edward·Lus(Edward Luce)think,After the initial small-scale conflict,It is because Moti encourages Hindus to hold collective demonstrations in Ahmedabad.,Only caused the riot to upgrade。And Moti himself participated in Indian education“National volunteer group”(RSS)It is the main implementor of arson and killing behavior。Because it is considered to have a deliberate conjunction,until2014Forever,The US State Council refused to give Modi diplomatic visa。

Although from the people's party winning the day,The ruling performance of Modi Cabine has been in my concerns.;But during this Indian trip,When I realize2002Annual riots in Indians' memory shock,Be like“9·11”After the incident, after Americans,I started more curious about the name of the white hair.“Gujarat”。Two careers exceeded20The US reporter helped me to answer this sleepy.,They have both hilted the truth before and the Prime Minister of the Prime Minister.,It is also observed that this controversial figure is constructed in the coast of Central and Western India.。

“Talking about his economic reform plan,This person is like a multinational giant companyCEO,But his dress and mental temperament is more like a Hindu.。”KRecall2009In the year, he saw Moddy in Ahmedabad.。then,The future prime minister took a statistics paper,It's endlessly description of Gujarat.10.2%Annual averageGDPgrowth rate、Newly laid1400Kilitary country tap water pipeline、Accounting the number of new employment positions in the country and the problem of power supply gap。whenKShengzan Gujarat is copying the prosperity experience of Dubai and Singapore,Moti proudly modified:“Single is the Gujarat International Financial Science and Technology City we are planning(GIFT City),The scale is enough to match Di Bai。The overseas economic prospects of the whole state should be based on South Korea.。”That seat2007The Gangli International Finance Technology New City is located on the bank of Sabalmarti River,Planning area359Hectare,Planning new110Giant monomer building(include5Heights350Skyscraper above the rice)、Similar city-level air conditioning systems similar to Singapore and the most advanced environmentally friendly waste disposal equipment in India,Currently entering the second stage construction。According to Modi's idea,It will accommodate in the future5Wan residents and40Tens of white collar,Become the largest financial settlement center from the East Coast of Africa to the Northern India Ocean and the Internet—Software leader,The overall scale should exceed the Shanghai Lujiazui Financial City and Tokyo's New Financial City。

Originally with sea travelers and waste metal recycling(Alang, Gujarat, is the world's largest waste ship dismantling center.)Start,Then, relying on the development of minerals and energy basic development in chemical industries that have huge market share,Finally, through government investment to improve traffic、electricity、Level of infrastructure such as fiber optic network,Attract finance、ITHigh-end manufacturing(car)Enter,Complete industrial upgrading in one fell swoop,This is MoDi“India Guangdong”(This is《Economist》Praise of magazines)The road to the economic tamper planning of Gujarat,It is also him2014Try to set the logic of the entire country after year。His effort is not to be unsuccessful——Despite the external pressure of oil prices rebounded,IndiaGDPexist2017Fourth quarter of fiscal year(till2018year3moon)Still achieved year-on-year growth7.7%Strong performance;entire2017The national economic growth rate in fiscal6.7%,And this is already the last four years oldest performance。at the same time,exist2017year8End of the month,The Modi government launched“Baicheng Reconstruction Program”Industrial upgrade project with steel industrial expansion。The country's largest steel company Jindal Shengli City(JSW Steel Ltd.)Plan2030New Year's output100010,000 tons of new factories,Double the overall capacity;Its main competitor tower steel(Tata Steel Ltd.)Also submitted annual production expansion400Ten thousand tons of plan。All increased capacity will be used in Varanasi、Jaipur, etc.100Traffic and housing transformation project of old city,The government has already developed300Long-term budget plan for billion dollars。Mashra, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, told me in the email:“Our steel consumption is far from achieving the same saturation like China.,future15At least at least200%Growth space。”

No need to have a deep economy knowledge,You can find outstanding defects in the entire plan。Whether it is the origin of Gujarat's myth of Ahmedabad,Still planning, Varanasi and Jaipur,It is a historical city with a million-level scale.。Even forever,Their overall layout and scale are distributed in accordance with the special trade network and ethnic groups of South Asia,Self-contained system。Gujarat Bang's unique endo selection and rich mineral resources are not available.,India is impossible to expect a finance andITcenter。not to mention,even if“Gujarat”itself,There is also a significant vulnerability:In Moti, it effectively enhances the local employment rate through the Breaking Infrastructure and Create Financial Science and Technology City.,The Bangfu Ahmedabad is still an amazing person in air pollution、Traffic congestion is serious、乞丐 拾 is typical Indian metropolis。Moti never determined to improve its livableness,Instead, we wrapped around the past.,And induce foreign journalists and economists to pay attention to the new financial city plan to be more attractive。now,Similar situations are Mumbai、Bangalore and other regions。

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2008year12moon3day,Mumbai police near Naruiren hoses who have just encountered terrorist attacks

Not only that,Social issues caused by the next phase of economic transformation and urbanization process,How much is MoDi。Enter21Century second10year,The proportion of Indian urban population accounting for the total population of the country is still insufficient.40%;But with industrial structure changes and government awareness guidance,2030This number will rise to50%。However, remove the infrastructure project itself,How to solve1.3Employment issues for the population of Yinxin Town,Bottom urban poor and low-end business ecology that are directly impacting need to bear how much transformation costs,It seems that it has never been given enough attention。

“Baicheng Reconstruction Program”Although there is no practical meaning and idealistic color,But it is possible to accelerate the total outbreak of contradictions in invisible。Construction similar to Gujarat Financial Science and Technology City and Gandhi Negh(This new city in rapid expansion replaced Ahmad as the status of the capital)Such high-end new citys can also help shape the top floor of the future of Indian economy,But they fight against the original old city business district may be devastating——The high-income group of the most consumed high-income group was taken out,Replacing them millions of new urban immigrants are not enough to fill their vacancy。In the past for more than half a century,Slum economy with Indian characteristics(May also be called“Dallavi economy”)Once is the starting point for these domestic immigrants,However, the most important low-land benefits of the slum economy will soon be eliminated by Moti's renovation plan.。More per capita residential area、Clean public health and drinking water facilities are undoubtedly worthy,But they also mean more high homes—Factory rent。Unless the government can solve the employment problem of slum households again through top design,Otherwise they will usher in the big collapse of the low-end private economy and the endless efforts。

Apart from this,Big knife-wide infrastructure investment plan,Sicking the Indian government has been priest——Public financial deficit risk and fund supervision chaos。Even in the past5Emergency growth rate exceeded8%in the case of,The New Delhi authorities have never lowered the fiscal deficit rate to3.2%Target level。Although the size of external debt is small,The probability of a greek debt default crisis in India is not large,But the relocation of local governments has been highly questioned.。for“Baicheng Reconstruction Program”customized300Yili dollar budget is not all from the central government funding,Standard & Poor analyst prediction:India's allch and urban governments in the future5At least you need to issue at least year100Million US dollars,I hope to support Modi's ambition,But no one can confirm their solvency。Not only that,At present, the total number of funds for the control of the national regular banks in India is about1.7Trillion(in2/3Fundamental state-owned bank name),But it has accumulated close2100Billion dollars of bad loans and bad debts。2018year2moon,The state-owned nature of the Punjab Bank Meng Buy Branch broke out the largest bank fraud in Indian history,Confirmed fraudulent scale20One hundred million U.S. dollars,Forcing the India's Ministry of Finance has to overturn all scale740Legitimacy of approval procedures for thousands of US loans。Subsequent data display:Over the past year,National Bank of China, India, National Bank(SBI)At least reported36Billion dollar bad debt,And the trip is precisely a series of government infrastructure projects.。State-owned banks release huge loans in terms of regulatory efforts,This is more worrying than lack of funds.。

Street in Delhi and Mumbai,Complete some construction only、The elevated high bridge site is naturally visible.,It has exacerbated the deterioration of traffic congestion that has been notorious.。Most of them are2002、2008and2012Year of the three rounds“Cool down”Product:From the last century90Beginning of the year,Each wave of mad prototypeful economic overheat,Almost all of them will end with a similar emergency brake。As international capital, the mythology of emerging markets tends to be cautious,In the past year,Accumulated37Billion“Hot money”Withdraw from the Indian market。all of these,Moddy can't see it。

“But you can't expect MoDi to accept。Actually,His people even looked at the mistakes, very little recognition。”Often in Kolkata and Mumbai exceed10Year-old reporterTtell me,“2008year,I have hinted that he should be2002The wrong role that plays in the riots of the ancient Guilaite,But it was hiding by Moddy alarm.。Before and after the prime minister,He has many opportunities to express their reflection in decent.,But he never did this。There are still local Muslims to think,Moti is a complete homage of Hindu pilgrimists.,Cruel and dangerous。”

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2002year3moon15day,The police in the anastya ancient city drive a group of Indian teaching and registers who are holding a religious ceremony.

“shock”Cost

2018Year of the year before the arrival,India's Ministry of China is very difficult“peaceful”Describe。5moon12day,Bangalore's southern Bang Darnatak(Karnataka)Hold legislative council elections。Although Moti Leaders' People's Party successfully won relatively large number of seats,But because the seat ranked third new people's party(Secularity)Choose a unified front of the party to the top party,The author's relief will eventually fall into the hand of opposition camp。In other words,On the occasion of the first prime minister of Modi,The Indian People's Party is still a no-critical“Northern Party”——Although the party is already in the country29Local state21Get the right to reluctance,But I have never attacked five states in the South.,This will undoubtedly leave a suspense for a year later.。5moon22day,Tamil Nadu2Ten thousand people surrounded by Mumbai Mining Mining Giants Wada Tower Resources, a large copper refinery opened in the local area,Protecting the factory long-term emissions industrial wastewater and exhaust。Local police shot to the people,cause13People die、102People injured。The Tamil Nadu government subsequently announced thoroughly。And in the northern end of Jammu—Kashmir,The local people filled with indignation held a parade.,Demand、From fast trial this year1In the month, the young girl is killed.8Defendant。8None exceptions are Hindu,in4People even the local police,This triggered a record“The whole event is the political conspiracy of opposition party planning”Allegation。Two of the people of the Sports Party appeared at the rally of the suspect,They were forced to resign afterwards,And the remaining wave of the event。

Watch the TV news program in Delhi for half a day,You may have this illusion:Moti has already church songs,Right change is just a problem。This is of course not all the facts,But it suggests at least two points:first,Although there is always an efficiency and localism issue,However, the two-party system patterns of the Indian politics and even the entire democracy are roughly stable.。Thunder is like Moddy,It is also necessary to accept long-term supervision and public opinion of the opposition party.。Secondly,Modi's reform cause is sent to high expectations,One of the related public policy topics——From election fair to environmental protection,From public health to female rights——It will eventually be attributed to the review and debate of government responsibility.。And the people's party deep Indian teaching background、its“Northern Party”Color and interest alliances formed with high-income classes in the city,Not in every issue, you can win the trust of the people.。

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2018year5moon12day,A Bangalore Citizen in Karnatak Legislative Parliamentary Election Voting Station with ink

“I am here from Varanasi.,Just to find a professional accounting firm。”Silk salesman Samin complained to me in Delhi,“Hosti's blessings,My current profit becomes zero。”Sapin criticism is from last year7moon1National unified consumption tax(GST)system,it is also known as modi's“second shock therapy”,the first time2016year11moon8Day and night announced the decision to abolish all current large-denomination banknotes in circulation。In Modi's view,“shock therapy”The positive meaning far outweighs the negative impact:In India, where cash is used,Converting new notes will force government officials who take bribes、Long-term tax-evading business owners and unscrupulous businessmen in unscrupulous business expose their hidden wealth,So as to clarify the dirty business environment in one fell swoop。Implementing a unified single-level tax system can reduce the actual burden of businessmen;While the state governments no longer have the power to impose new taxes at will,But the central government has promised to unify tax revenue42%returned to the states(The past is32%),It can also stimulate the state government to further improve the business environment in the office。so that,Future“Made in India”will obtain a truly reliable system guarantee。

The only problem is that,Modi lets ordinary businessmen and consumers,rather than the government“shock”most of the negative consequences。The date of the demonetization,The government and central bank of India only set aside4hours to exchange new banknotes for citizens(In theory, it is necessary to exchange all circulating currencies86%),Most banks also do not have enough new banknotes ready。Mumbai、Massive runs on Kolkata and other places,Some desperate urban poor and peasants even choose to commit suicide in public。Construction industry with long-term cash-settled wages、Low-end manufacturing and community retail until12After a few months, it has not been able to restore the original scale of operation,The loss in growth rate for the entire Indian economy could be as high as2%。

tax system“shock”The impact of the。Mr Sachin now needs to hire a Delhi-based chartered accountant to help him prepare the various forms and materials needed for his tax return,per charge22Dollar;In addition, you need to register a company-specific e-tax account and online banking.,in order to complete the final payment process。The time and money cost of all these steps is solely his own responsibility,The government has not provided any notice or training。If for a middle-aged businessman like him with little wealth,All this can be tolerated,So for the semi-literate self-employed weavers in Varanasi,It's an absolute catastrophe.。“Throughout Varanasi there are50Ten thousand textile industry practitioners,Most are self-employed or family-run small businesses,Many are completely illiterate。In the past I only provided them with silk raw materials,To be woven into a full sari before purchasing、and deduct the cost,Now they have to file taxes for each of them。”Sachin said,“To prevent them from being arrested by tax officials,to keep them from going bankrupt,So all the extra expenses are passed on to me as a middleman。”Weavers who are converted from the urban poor are like the million inhabitants of Dharavi,Never had contact with electronic accounts or online payments before,Most people don't have smartphones,Modi is counting on them to quickly integrate into an American-style self-reporting model。“Maybe it is necessary for the government,But Modi pulled the train out before the tracks were laid,this is crazy。”

But maybe we're all wrong。Modi is not crazy,He just doesn't put these operations“informal economy”of the urban poor as their base——As Mr Batra of Dharavi said,they don't belong“The India Modi wants”。This year2moon,Ministry of Finance of India announced2019The last annual budget before the general election,which explicitly promises to raise the minimum purchase price for agricultural products, including staples,and funded agricultural machinery and power companies to build more irrigation for the northern agricultural states、Power Generation and Farming Facilities。Newly launched National Health Insurance Scheme(NHPS)Commitment to the Nation5billion people provide the most7400Medicare reimbursement in US dollars,The transport and aviation industries will also benefit from a series of large-scale infrastructure projects。Urban consumers and foreign consumer goods manufacturers have become the main cost bearers——from this summer,The already unified consumption tax rate will be3%one-time increase to4%,This is bound to bring about an overall increase in prices。Although the Indian government has made it clear that it welcomes foreign capital to continue to enter the region,However, tariffs on imported mobile phones have increased from15%raised to20%,to force foreign brands to build more factories in India、Hire local workers。

obviously,Modi knows where the BJP's fundamentals lie:13More than 60% of 100 million Indians still live in rural areas,them,not a resident of Dharavi,will decide on the current government2019future in the general election。In Karnataka state assembly elections,It has been exposed that BJP officials are trying to get rid of the people“buy tickets”And blatantly falsely reported the scandal of the party's vote,This constitutes the other side of the ruling party's efforts to increase the votes。Although either“Made in India”blueprint,still ambitious“Hundred cities renovation plan”,The long-term goal is to increase the proportion of urbanization in the country,bring farmers into town、for the next“world factory”provide blood;But Modi won't tell them plainly:From now on they will have to change their tax bills、slums that could be demolished at any time and severe air pollution day after day、traffic jam(Average city speed in Delhi and Mumbai is less than an hour15kilometer)for the company。And the solution to all these problems,It's still stuck in the Prime Minister's mind.。

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2002year3moon5day,A Muslim woman who survived the riots in Gujarat was temporarily housed in a clearing house in central Ahmedabad.

in a silent place

(website developer in noida)“Has Modi changed India??”Before embarking on a journey to the last continent,This is my biggest concern。while witnessing Dharavi and Anand·After daily life in the slums of Parbat,The answer is ready:India is still India,It's just after some just-right actions by the BJP government.“decoration”。in bangalore、noida in delhi(Noida)and Gujarat FinTech City,Modi's administration has created a financial、software、Pharmaceutical and outsourcing service industry as the core“high end”Industrial clusters and satellite cities,Successfully attracted the attention and investment of international capital——even in the current global economy,The above industries are also the most profitable、most in-demand sectors,And India's labor cost advantage alone is enough to create a thriving atmosphere。The vast countryside in the hinterland of the subcontinent,Government succeeds and electricity through price protection mechanism、Improvements in irrigation facilities win support from agricultural interests,Thus creating a public opinion foundation for long-term governance。The middle and low-end urban populations in between are selectively forgotten.。Although in the long run,It is precisely the middle and lower-class residents of this city that constitute the connection between the agricultural area and the high-end industrial clusters.。

“See what Modi left behind in Gujarat,you can understand。”American geopolitical scientist who has long been concerned with Indian Ocean security issues、senior foreign correspondent robert·Kaplan(Robert D. Kaplan)tell me,“on the eve of his departure,There5Nearly half of children under age are malnourished,3/4of women suffer from anemia,The literacy rate is just over65%the national average of。”Although in public, he poses as the guardian of the underclass people,But what really fascinates Modi is always those industries and regions that help India get a lot of external capital investment。in India,“dual economy”“dual society”The shortcomings of the、trickier,And Modi has no time to tinker with them yet。

(website developer in noida)website developer in noida

2014year1moon7day,Two blue-collar workers operating a metal forming machine in Thane, Maharashtra

6moon26day,Thomson Reuters Foundation(TRF)published titled《2017Top 10 most unsafe countries for women in the world》investigation report。exist550voted by experts,India“As expected”number one place,even more than war-torn Afghanistan、Syria and Somalia。According to the report,2017On average, more than100a case of sexual violence,involving rape、human trafficking、Forced Marriage and Forced Birth,and is still approaching every year10%rate of continuous growth。and10year-on-year,The number of crimes against women has increased83%;On average, there are more than20010,000 women fear for safety,opting out of full-time employment,be a housewife。According to the McKinsey Global Institute,The employment rate of women in India has just reached27%,This ratio is only higher among emerging market countries than Saudi Arabia, where religious policy barriers exist。If this situation cannot be improved,theoretically to2025year,it will give to indiaGNPbring more than1/3Loss。

Patelgarh industrial area in central Delhi,The wife of the electroplating factory owner Singh recalled her experience to me:quite a while after graduating from university,She works for a foreign trade company in the southern suburbs of Delhi,Must travel by bus and subway every day。Since there were no female-only carriages on public transport at that time,Every commute means an endless stream of malicious touching and verbal teasing。One year later,She started long-term rental of private cars and drivers,But there are still several times that men of unknown origin have been taken on three wheels“chug”vehicle(Rickshaw)track,And the police don't care。after marriage,The Singhs install alarms and TV surveillance in their apartment,Then began to worry that a pair of children may be sexually assaulted at school。finally,Exhausted Mrs Singh abandons plans to start her own business,become husband's assistant:It's safer for her,You can also take care of children who are studying in nearby schools at any time。“I study international trade at university,And a lawyer's license,Could have earned a high salary in many foreign companies。”Her tone is still a little uneven,“but i have no choice,Because the government doesn't protect its women。”

This is really a ridiculous phenomenon:In a country with a history of severe sexism,most educated、A group of women with the strongest sense of independence,However, due to the deterioration of the overall security environment,would rather give up hard-earned high-paying jobs。McKinsey's research report shows:Growing number of female entrepreneurs in India、Lawyers and white-collar workers from foreign companies choose to become full-time housewives or primary and secondary school teachers,To avoid long-distance commuting in congested big cities。should have been a nurse、Young girls as childcare workers and beauticians fear abuse while travelling,would rather give up the opportunity to attend free training courses run by the government。And Modi's cabinet has consistently denied the seriousness of the problem:until2016year,The Indian government has only revised the penal code to punish the sexual assault of underage girls(maximum death penalty);everything else,always attacked by them“boring deliberate ugliness”。

“Sociopathy”Potential constraints to India's economic development,far more than reflected in the issue of women's rights。2018early summer,a vigorous“Air Conditioning War”in delhi、Mumbai、Major cities such as Kolkata are expanding。day over45Celsius heat makes suburban homeowners prefer to borrow from friends and relatives,Also raise funds to purchase the first home air conditioner。Batra told me,Two of his senior staff are trying to give their children more peace of mind to prepare for college entrance exams,Loan installed air conditioner:“Their monthly income is only500around US dollars,Average in Mumbai,But in order to give children a better career future,I will do my best。”arrive2016year to date,Home air conditioners still belong to only10%of Indians enjoy privileged treatment,But all this is changing:Not only the economic statistics and“high end”The size of the industry needs to grow,Ordinary Indians also want to further improve their living conditions,even if the pace is very slow。

(website developer in noida)website developer in noida(website developer in noida)2017year1moon9day,A group of guests at the inauguration passed the recently completed International Stock Exchange Building in Gujarat International Fintech City

But it's not easy。Although since2015years since,Modi's government's measures to upgrade rural power transmission and distribution lines have greatly improved the domestic electricity situation in India's hinterland,However, due to the aging of power generation equipment、The share of nuclear power is low(only1.8%),South and Northeast regions remain22.2%and12.9%of daily electricity shortfalls。in delhi、Super city like Mumbai,Power outages occur on average every day in summer2~3Second-rate,Cumulative economic losses of tens of millions of dollars each year。The number of air-conditioning purchases has risen sharply,It is bound to bring a heavier burden to the civil power supply。Equally tricky is external pressure——2016year10moon,Exceed150Top delegates from 10 countries reach agreement at Rwanda climate conference,announced that it will be2028Complete cessation of the greenhouse gas hydrofluorocarbons by 2020(HFC)production and emissions,And HFCs are precisely the refrigerants used in the most sold cheap air conditioners in the Indian market.。For the Modi government, which has always attached great importance to the perception of the international market and international capital,,Emission reduction is imperative,But it also means that ordinary Indians have to buy new, more expensive air conditioners。between the government and the people,There is still great tension。

women's voice、Voice of Air Conditioning Buyers、People suffering from traffic jams and power outages、Dharavi residents' voices,may not be reflected in the rise and fall of government approval ratings,Probably won't stop Modi from presenting another Potemkin-style list to his potential investors,But they do exist。they are not“Deliberately vilifying”,not cold numbers,but India leads to“future country”(This is《Bloomberg Businessweek》Comments on India's economic prospects)The inescapable boulder on the journey。If in the first term of Prime Minister,Modi has found an upper framework for his country that is fit for the world market,then in the following days,How to stabilize the bottom structure supporting this upper frame,including avoiding the emergence of great unrest and ethnic conflict,will be a more serious challenge。And in this long journey,The power of capital will not always be with him。

70years ago,The most famous political figures ever born in Gujarat——“Mahatma”Gandhi was assassinated by a member of the National Volunteer Corps in the streets of New Delhi。70Years later,Another National Volunteer Corps member who has built his reputation in Gujarat is leading the central government in New Delhi,Ready to play a bigger role on the world stage。for modi,The difficulties he needs to overcome are no less than the original Gandhi,And the daunting test has only just begun。

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